Trump vs Harris: Betting market tells different story from polls

The United States is gearing up for the upcoming presidential election where the contestants Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a nail-biting election race. According to a poll, the US presidential nominees are neck and neck. However, a popular new way of tracking and betting on the race tells a different story.

According to the Polymarket, as of October 15, the US former president is ahead of the vice president with a 57.7% chance of victory.

Trump's lead just set another record high against Harris.

Trump 🟥 • 57.7% chance
Harris 🟦 • 41.9% chance pic.twitter.com/jYUO5Mg3WR

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 15, 2024

PredictIt, a popular betting platform, has seen a recent shift in sentiment, with traders now backing Trump over Harris by a margin of 54% to 49%. This marks the first time since late July that Harris' support on the platform has fallen below 50%.

Lindsey Singer, a spokesperson for PredictIt, told FOX Business, "With three weeks left in the campaign, and polling showing things remain essentially tied, I don't think these are the last flips we will see in the market."

RealClearPolitics, which tracks various prediction markets, reports that Trump is projected to win according to every platform they monitor. The aggregated betting odds data from RCP gives the former president a 54.1% chance of victory, while Harris trails at 44.9%. Other betting platforms, such as Betfair, Smarkets, Betsson, Bavada, Bwin, and Points Bet, all show Trump with odds ranging from 52% to 57%, while Harris' chances are estimated between 43% and 46%.

Although recent polls suggest a closer race than the betting markets currently indicate, they also point to growing momentum behind Trump's campaign. The latest NBC News poll, conducted from October 4-8, found Trump and Harris in a dead heat, each garnering 48% support from voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. This represents a significant shift from the outlet's September poll, which had Harris leading Trump by a margin of 49% to 44%, Fox Business reported.

The advocates of prediction markets argue that they are better than the polls, as they can quickly adapt to the latest developments, such as debates and breaking news.

"Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd," Thomas Miller, a professor of data science at Northwestern University, told Fortune, as per the New York Times. Miller's website, which calculates the electoral college results based on PredictIt contract prices, currently predicts a decisive win for Trump.

However, doubters question whether someone has been attempting to influence these markets. Miller, who had predicted a Harris victory just a month prior, stated on his website that he had "identified no single event that explains" the abrupt change in Trump's odds.

Some observers have pointed to posts by Elon Musk on October 7 promoting Trump's lead in prediction markets, suggesting that he may have encouraged other Trump supporters to participate. Election Betting Odds, a market results aggregator, indicates that Trump's lead surged around that time.