Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict: Will Saudi Arabia step in? Here's what Kingdom said

Heavy fighting along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has reignited fears of broader regional instability. Pakistani forces and the Taliban have been engaged in repeated clashes, with Islamabad accused of air strikes and retaliatory operations. The Taliban regime has condemned these actions, warning of escalating conflict that could spill over beyond the border.

Amid this growing tension, attention has turned to Saudi Arabia’s newly signed defence pact with Pakistan, formalised in September 2025. Under the agreement, both nations commit to collective security, an attack on one is considered an attack on both. Saudi Arabia has explicitly pledged to defend Pakistan against external aggression, a move analysts say could have profound implications for regional geopolitics.

So far, Riyadh has publicly called for restraint, urging both sides to avoid escalation and prioritise dialogue. However, the pact positions Saudi Arabia as a strategic backstop for Pakistan. While the kingdom has not openly declared it would intervene militarily against Afghanistan, the formalisation of the agreement signals a willingness to support Islamabad if the conflict intensifies.

“The kingdom calls for restraint, avoiding escalation, and embracing dialogue and wisdom to contribute to reducing tensions and maintaining security and stability in the region,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said.

“The kingdom affirms its support for all regional and international efforts aimed at promoting peace and stability, and its continued commitment to ensuring security, which will achieve stability and prosperity for the brotherly Pakistani and Afghan peoples,” it added.

Yet, there might be a potential strategic calculation behind Riyadh’s measured public stance. While Saudi officials have stopped short of committing to direct military involvement in Afghanistan, the defence pact clearly positions the kingdom as Pakistan’s security backstop.

In case the border clashes intensify, Saudi Arabia could be drawn into supporting Islamabad, maybe not out of immediate desire for confrontation, but as a strategic move to protect alliances and regional stability.

The pact also reflects broader shifts in Middle Eastern foreign policy. Saudi Arabia appears to be embracing extended deterrence, signalling to regional actors that it will actively defend its partners against external threats, particularly in volatile zones like South and Central Asia. While diplomacy remains the preferred route, the kingdom’s commitment to Pakistan cannot be dismissed lightly.

Meanwhile, Trump's desire to regain control of Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base adds a significant geopolitical layer to the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact and the ongoing Pak-Afghan conflict. Trump has expressed a clear and forceful interest in reclaiming this strategic military base, citing its vital importance for projecting power in the region, particularly as a counterbalance to China, which he considers a primary strategic rival.

Bagram Air Base, abandoned by US forces during their 2021 withdrawal, remains a rare foothold in Afghanistan capable of supporting large military operations due to the country’s challenging mountainous terrain.

It cannot be ruled out that the United States could leverage its strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to build pressure on Afghanistan regarding the Bagram Air Base. Pakistan, given its complex relationship with Afghanistan and its defence pact with Saudi Arabia, could serve as a tool to put pressure on the Taliban-led Afghan government.

However, such pressure would be delicate, considering Saudi Arabia’s public calls for restraint amid the newly escalated Pak-Afghan border clashes and its preference for diplomatic solutions so far. Additionally, regional players like China, Russia, and Iran are strongly opposed to renewed foreign military presence in Afghanistan, complicating any overt coercive move.

While Riyadh has publicly called for restraint and dialogue, the combination of the defence pact, the intensifying Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes, and the strategic interests of Saudi Arabia suggests that military support for Islamabad remains a plausible scenario if regional tensions escalate further. For now, analysts caution that the pact is both a diplomatic warning and a potential military guarantee, leaving the region on edge.