A big Wall Street analyst predicts Apple could manufacture up to 65% of its iPhones in India by fall 2025, as the tech giant navigates mounting pressure from President Trump to shift production away from the the country. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who maintains a $270 price target and Outperform rating on Apple stock, called the Trump administration's 90-day tariff pause "a dream scenario" for the company. By this fall, Ives believes Apple "could manufacture 60% to 65% of its smartphones in India," citing his "high level of confidence" that the iPhone maker is accelerating its manufacturing transfer to the South Asian country.
The prediction comes amid escalating tensions between Apple and the Trump administration over the company's India operations. During a business event in Qatar, Trump revealed he confronted Apple CEO Tim Cook, stating: "I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday. I said to him... I don't want you building in India."
Apple's strategic flexibility amid political pressure
Despite presidential pressure, Ives suggests Apple retains strategic options. The company "could easily pivot back to a China driven iPhone strategy," he noted, with actions dependent "on the tariff situation and deal negotiations."
Apple has reportedly reassured the Indian government there will be "no change" in its investment plans, even as Trump publicly urged the company to increase US. production. The tech giant manufactured approximately $22 billion worth of iPhones in India in the year ending March 2025, representing a 60% increase from the previous year.
US manufacturing remains unlikely
However, Ives dismisses the possibility of significant American iPhone production, stating there is "no chance that iPhone production starts to happen in the US. in the near term." The analyst warns that US.-manufactured iPhones would cost consumers around $3,500 due to supply chain complexities and manufacturing costs.
Apple's manufacturing partner Foxconn continues expanding its Indian operations with a $1.5 billion investment, planning to produce 25-30 million iPhones at its India plants in 2025, more than doubling last year's output.
The prediction comes amid escalating tensions between Apple and the Trump administration over the company's India operations. During a business event in Qatar, Trump revealed he confronted Apple CEO Tim Cook, stating: "I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday. I said to him... I don't want you building in India."
Apple's strategic flexibility amid political pressure
Despite presidential pressure, Ives suggests Apple retains strategic options. The company "could easily pivot back to a China driven iPhone strategy," he noted, with actions dependent "on the tariff situation and deal negotiations."
Apple has reportedly reassured the Indian government there will be "no change" in its investment plans, even as Trump publicly urged the company to increase US. production. The tech giant manufactured approximately $22 billion worth of iPhones in India in the year ending March 2025, representing a 60% increase from the previous year.
US manufacturing remains unlikely
However, Ives dismisses the possibility of significant American iPhone production, stating there is "no chance that iPhone production starts to happen in the US. in the near term." The analyst warns that US.-manufactured iPhones would cost consumers around $3,500 due to supply chain complexities and manufacturing costs.
Apple's manufacturing partner Foxconn continues expanding its Indian operations with a $1.5 billion investment, planning to produce 25-30 million iPhones at its India plants in 2025, more than doubling last year's output.
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