Nigel Farage and Reform UK could win in very surprising UK area

At the 2024 London mayoral election, Reform UK came in fifth with just under 4% of the vote. But a lot has changed since last May. Now - while Reform is still behind Labour in London - it is rising fast in the outer fringes of the British capital. So transformative is this process the BBC covered the change over the weekend. The broadcaster said polling showed London has a smaller share of Reform voters, but a higher share of people who say they would consider voting Reform in the future.

Professor Tony Travers of the London School of Economics cites "Barking and Dagenham, Havering, Bexley, Hillingdon, even Sutton" as boroughs to watch. For the most part these are boroughs closer to Essex - where Reform already has two MPs - and Kent, where Reform now controls the local council.

These are also areas which generally voted Leave in 2016 and which tend to be less racially diverse. But I wouldn't mind betting Reform's message begins to win over some minorities as well, especially British South Asians.

It is worth remembering one-third of British South Asians - the UK's second largest racial group - voted out in 2016 (versus just under half of whites).

Just as increasing numbers of British Indians have voted Tory in recent years due to the Conservatives' perceived support for harder punishment for crime, lower taxes and support for families and small businesses, a similar trend could happen with Reform.

It is nonsense to suggest all ethnic minorities - nearly half the population of London - are uniformly Left-wing, given their generally more socially conservative attitudes, as well as the higher proportion of these groups in small businesses and self-employment.

In fact, it is highly likely long-settled communities which came to Britain legally are staunchly opposed to illegal immigration and the pressures created therefrom.

If the Reform vote tracks Leave support, remember Bradford, Luton and Slough all voted out in the EU referendum nine years ago. All three are extremely racially diverse, the latter two now white minority.

Reform is not winning over Islington anytime soon. But it has more than a sporting chance in areas like West London I would suggest. Southall, for example, was 50/50 in 2016.

Outer London is now perhaps Reform's for the taking, as the capital - like other urban areas - is disproportionately affected by housing pressures, overcrowding and crime.

The Tories meanwhile are on the way out in the capital. Long gone are the days when Boris Johnson was cheered to two terms as London Mayor.

Now it is Nigel Farage - an MP for Essex - who has a tremendous chance to win much of London and other big cities, as urban Britain is swept up by the turquoise tidal wave.