Keir Starmer and Labour have only two threat to Reform - don't hold your breath lefties

Reform UK is still annihilating the Conservatives and clearly stealing votes from Labour as its populist policies carve out a new space in British political life. Pollster estimates of Tory MPs at the next election vary from around 50 to as low as 12. To some extent, of course, under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has a thankless task. She leads a party universally loathed after 14 years of failure. Meanwhile, every utterance by the Conservatives against Labour - especially regarding immigration - carries the stench of rank hypocrisy.

Yet while her leadership is one of Reform's greatest assets, how much longer will the Tory backbenches tolerate this collapse? While I have long said the optics of booting Badenoch out would be horrific, rumours abound of a mutiny. So desperate have the backbenches become there is even talk of a planned comeback for ex-PM Boris Johnson!

Frankly, a new leader - whether Johnson coming back from the political dead, Robert Jenrick, or someone else entirely - is unlikely to reverse woeful Tory fortunes. But could a new leader really do any worse? Complacency then could be Reform's greatest enemy. Johnson was ultimately deemed a disaster, but he remains the only politician to match Farage's name and brand recognition.

In this respect - and in others - what happens next to the Conservatives will be critical. A new leader could well dent Reform's lead. On the other hand, continued poll collapse either due to keeping Badenoch staying put or a successor failing to stem the tide, could prompt an exodus of Tory MPs to Reform. If that trickle becomes a flood, Reform's poll lead only strengthens. With or without such an exodus, ongoing Tory woes could well prompt an attempted deal with Reform.

All this plays to Nigel Farage's advantage unless the Reform leader fears guilt by association, either by accepting a number of former Conservative MPs or cutting some electoral deal with the Conservatives. Right now, Farage is understandably resistant to the latter and for good reason: aside from undermining Reform's claim to offer a genuine alternative to the 'uniparty', a Reform parliamentary party stuffed with former Tory MPs would offer huge ammunition to Labour (and likely alienate many Labour-Reform wavering voters in the North and Midlands).

What then of Labour? Sir Keir Starmer's party walks a tightrope in attempting to woo voters flirting with Reform - especially on immigration - without alienating left-wing supporters increasingly leaning towards the Greens and Lib Dems. Labour is hardly succeeding with this balancing act, while recent watered-down welfare reforms appear likely to alienate all sides while failing to establish a much-needed reputation for economic competence.

Labour's only threats to Reform are that Sir Keir and co secure the borders and oversee a booming economy (don't hold your breath!) and master media messaging better than Farage. Right now Reform is master of the airwaves, newspaper columns and social media. Labour could however start to perfect their messaging, and slowly reverse Reform's victory for hearts and minds.

For now, Reform's ascendancy grows. But a changing of the guard at the top of the Tory party or better PR from Labour could tilt the scales. Farage and co are likely wise to these dangers. Much now depends on what Tory high command does. Will the party of Churchill and Thatcher get its act together or are we witnessing an extinction-level event for what was once considered the most successful political party in the western world?