I worked with Alex Salmond - here's how I think Reform UK are doing ahead in Scotland

It is not often that a by-election to the Scottish Parliament prompts such fevered speculation, but the contest in Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse is shaping up to be more than a mere mid-term skirmish. In fact, it may prove to be a harbinger of something far more profound - a reordering of political allegiances, not just in Scotland, but across the United Kingdom.

The vote, scheduled for Thursday 5th June, was triggered by the sad passing of Christine McKelvie, the sitting SNP MSP. McKelvie was well-liked and respected across party lines, and her legacy casts a long shadow over the campaign. But the real drama lies not in reflection, but in anticipation - and the unexpected rise of Reform UK.

Having been involved in Scottish politics, including a brief stint for SNP legend Alex Salmond, I'm acutely aware of how much the picture has changed north of the border.

This particular seat, once thought to be a straight shootout between the SNP and Labour, has become something altogether more combustible. The SNP, as expected, has poured resources into the constituency. John Swinney, barely settled into his new leadership role, has made multiple visits, and even Nicola Sturgeon - whose recent public appearances have been sporadic at best - has joined the fray. That in itself speaks volumes.

It suggests that internal polling at SNP HQ has given the strategists pause for thought. Public polling remains sparse, but there are whispers from the ground that the SNP's previously impregnable grip on the seat may be loosening. Most striking of all is the potential of a Reform UK surge that could displace Labour into third place - or, in a scenario that would have seemed fanciful weeks ago, snatch victory outright.

Now, let's be clear. The bookmakers are still backing the SNP. They would be expected to hold a seat like this under ordinary circumstances. But we are no longer in ordinary times.

The Labour campaign has been visibly hampered. Their candidate, Davy Russell, has adopted an almost subterranean profile - declining to participate in hustings, avoiding televised debates, and appearing reluctant to embrace the necessary retail politics of a local campaign. That kind of diffidence might have passed muster in a safe seat, but not here, not now.

Contrast that with Reform UK's growing visibility and momentum. Their candidate has taken full advantage of media exposure, capitalising on public dissatisfaction with the status quo. And now, with Nigel Farage set to arrive in person on Monday, the dynamics of the race could change overnight. Farage, whatever one thinks of him, remains one of the most effective campaigners in British politics. He electrifies disillusioned voters and injects energy into otherwise staid political contests.

If Reform UK does manage to pull off a win - and I stress if - the political aftershocks will be felt far beyond South Lanarkshire. It would represent not just an embarrassment for Labour and the SNP, but a challenge to the idea that Scotland is immune to the populist undercurrents reshaping politics elsewhere.

For Labour, third place would be a humiliation. Keir Starmer's party needs to demonstrate that it can compete - and win - in Scotland if it hopes to form a UK government. Coming behind Reform UK would raise serious questions about Labour's message, its candidate selection, and its ability to engage with working-class voters who may feel abandoned.

For the SNP, a narrow win would do little to allay fears that their grip is weakening. A loss, however improbable, could become a symbol of decline - proof that the coalition which underpinned the independence movement is fragmenting under pressure.

And for Reform UK? Victory would provide a shot of legitimacy they've long sought. It would prove that their appeal is not confined to English market towns and seaside seats, but extends into post-industrial Scotland - once the beating heart of Labour, now a political free-for-all.

In military terms, the by-election is a reconnaissance in force. It tests enemy strength, exposes weaknesses, and may lead to unexpected breakthroughs. The general election for the Scottish Parliament is due in May next year. What happens in Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse may shape the strategies, the narratives, and even the national mood heading into that contest.

Make no mistake - this is not just a local matter. It is a test of credibility, resilience, and relevance for all three parties. The political weather may be about to change. And if Reform UK is the storm on the horizon, the rest of us would do well to prepare for heavy turbulence ahead.