Canada's Liberals fall short of majority despite comeback election victory

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals fell short of winning an outright majority in Parliament on 30 April, Tuesday, a day after the party scored a stunning in a vote widely seen as a rebuke to US president Donald Trump.

The vote-counting agency Elections Canada finished processing nearly all ballots in an election that could leave the Liberals just three seats shy of a majority, which means they will have to seek help from another, smaller party to pass legislation.

The Liberal party seemed likely to find the extra votes necessary. Still, it was unclear whether they would come from the progressive party, which backed the Liberals under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, or from a separatist party from French-speaking Quebec.

Carney’s rival, populist Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, was leading until Trump took aim at Canada with a trade war and the country as the ‘51st state’ of the US. Poilievre not only lost his bid for prime ministership on Monday but was voted out of the Parliament seat that he had held for 20 years.

That capped a swift decline in fortunes for the firebrand Poilievre, who a few months ago appeared to be a shoo-in to become Canada’s next prime minister and shepherd the Conservatives back into power for the first time in a decade.

Poilievre, a career politician, who campaigned with Trump-like bravado, took a page from the “America First” president by adopting the slogan “Canada First”. But his similarities to Trump may have ultimately cost him and his party.

The Liberals were projected to win 169 seats of Parliament’s 343 seats while the Conservatives were projected to win 144. The separatist Bloc Quebecois party was expected to finish with 22 seats, the progressive New Democrats with seven and the Greens with one. Recounts were expected in some districts.

Elections Canada said 68.5 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots in the federal election — the highest turnout since 1993.

In a victory speech, Carney stressed unity in the face of Washington’s threats. He said the mutually beneficial relationship Canada and the US had shared since World War II was gone.

“We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,” he said.

“As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country,” Carney added. “These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never... ever happen. But we also must recognise the reality that our world has fundamentally changed.”

This is Canada — and we decide what happens here. pic.twitter.com/1baJGn7pwv

— Mark Carney (@MarkJCarney) April 28, 2025

In a statement issued Tuesday, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said the Canadian election “does not affect President Trump’s plan to make Canada America’s cherished 51st state.”

Carney spoke with Trump, and the two leaders “agreed on the importance of Canada and the United States working together — as independent, sovereign nations — for their mutual betterment,” Carney’s office said in a statement. The men “agreed to meet in person in the near future.”

Today, Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump. Read a summary of their call: https://t.co/3BE0pX5P8R

— Prime Minister of Canada (@CanadianPM) April 29, 2025

A defeat for the Conservatives

Poilievre hoped to make the election a referendum on Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose.

But Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned and Carney, a two-time central banker, became the Liberal Party’s leader and prime minister.

In a concession speech before the race call on his seat, Poilievre vowed to keep fighting for Canadians.

“We are cognizant of the fact that we didn’t get over the finish line yet,” Poilievre said.

“We know that change is needed, but change is hard to come by. It takes time. It takes work. And that’s why we have to learn the lessons of tonight.”

McGill University political science professor Daniel Beland said nothing prevents Poilievre from remaining the Conservative leader without a seat but, if he decides to stay, he would need to run in another district — perhaps by asking a Conservative member of Parliament from a safe Conservative district to resign.

“Still, losing your seat when some people within your own party think you’re the main reason why it failed to win is a clear issue for Poilievre,” Béland said.

“Moreover, not having the leader of the official opposition in the House of Commons when Parliament sits again would obviously be a problem for the Conservatives.”

Even as Canadians mourned a deadly weekend attack at a Vancouver street festival, Trump was trolling them on election day, asserting that he was on their ballot and erroneously claiming that the US subsidises Canada. “It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!” he wrote.

Trump’s truculence has infuriated Canadians, leading many to cancel US vacations, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even to vote early. A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day.

Reid Warren, a Toronto resident, said he voted Liberal because Poilievre “sounds like mini-Trump to me.” He said Trump’s tariffs are a worry.

“Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,” he said.

Foreign policy hasn’t dominated a Canadian election this much since 1988, when free trade with the United States was the prevailing issue.

The Liberal way forward

Carney and the Liberals have daunting challenges ahead.

The Liberals will need to rely on a smaller party after failing to win a majority in Parliament. Trudeau’s Liberals relied on the New Democrats to remain in power for years, but the party fared poorly on Monday, and its leader, , said he was stepping down after eight years in charge.

The Bloc Quebecois, which looked set to finish third, is a separatist party from French-speaking Quebec that seeks independence. Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said he would be open to working with the government for a year if it’s a minority.

“The last thing that the Quebec people and Canada people want is instability in the federal Parliament,” he said.

In addition to the trade war with the US and a frosty relationship with Trump, Canada is dealing with a cost-of-living crisis. More than 75 per cent of its exports go to the US, so Trump’s tariffs threat and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada’s production south could severely damage the economy.

Carney has vowed that every dollar the government collects from counter-tariffs on US goods will go toward Canadian workers who are adversely affected. He also said he plans to offer a middle-class tax cut, return immigration to sustainable levels and increase funding to Canada’s public broadcaster.