Trump, Saudi crown prince sign host of agreements as US leader begins 4-day Mideast tour

Riyadh | US President Donald Trump signed a host of economic and bilateral cooperation agreements in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday as he kicked off a four-day Middle East trip with a focus on dealmaking with a key Mideast ally while shared concerns about Iran's nuclear programme and the war in Gaza dragged on in the background.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi de facto ruler, warmly greeted Trump as he stepped off Air Force One at King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital.

The two leaders then retreated to a grand hall at the Riyadh airport, where Trump and his aides were served traditional Arabic coffee by waiting attendants wearing ceremonial gun belts.

“I really believe we like each other a lot,” Trump said later during a brief appearance with the crown prince at the start of a bilateral meeting.

They later signed more than a dozen agreements to increase cooperation between their governments' militaries, justice departments and cultural institutions. Additional economic agreements were expected to be inked later Tuesday at a US-Saudi investment conference convened for the occasion.

Prince Mohammed has already committed to some USD 600 billion in new Saudi investment in the US, but Trump teased USD 1 trillion would be even better.

Fighter jet escort

The pomp began before Trump even landed. Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provided an honorary escort for Air Force One as it approached the kingdom's capital — an exceptionally rare sight.

Trump and Prince Mohammed also took part in a formal greeting and lunch at the Royal Court at Al Yamamah Palace, gathering with guests and aides in an ornate room with blue and gold accents and massive crystal chandeliers.

As he greeted business titans with Trump by his side, Prince Mohammed was animated and smiling.

It was a stark contrast to his awkward fist bump with then-President Joe Biden, who looked to avoid being seen on camera shaking hands with the prince during a 2022 visit to the kingdom.

Biden had decided to pay a visit to Saudi Arabia as he looked to alleviate soaring prices at the pump for motorists at home and around the globe.

At the time, Prince Mohammed's reputation had been badly damaged by a US intelligence determination that found he had ordered the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

But that dark moment appeared to be distant memory for the prince as he rubbed elbows with high-profile business executives — including Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — in front of the cameras and with Trump by his side.

Later, the crown prince will fete Trump with an intimate state dinner at Ad-Diriyah, a UNESCO heritage site that is the birthplace of the first Saudi state and the site of a major development project championed by the crown prince.

Oil production

Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC+ nations have already helped their cause with Trump early in his second term by stepping up oil production. Trump sees cheap energy as a key component to lowering costs and stemming inflation for Americans. The Republican president has also made the case that lower oil prices will hasten an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

But Saudi Arabia's economy remains heavily dependent on oil, and the kingdom needs a fiscal break-even oil price of USD 96 to USD 98 a barrel to balance its budget. It's questionable how long OPEC+, of which Saudi Arabia is the leading member, is willing to keep production elevated. The price of a barrel of Brent crude closed Monday at USD 64.77.

Qatar and UAE next

Trump picked the kingdom for his first stop, because it has pledged to make big investments in the US, but he ended up travelling to Italy last month for Pope Francis' funeral. Riyadh was the first overseas stop of his first term.

The three countries on Trump's itinerary — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — are places where the Trump Organisation, run by Trump's two oldest sons, is developing major real estate projects.

They include a high-rise tower in Jeddah, a luxury hotel in Dubai and a golf course and villa complex in Qatar.

Trump is trying to demonstrate that his transactional strategy for international politics is paying dividends as he faces criticism from Democrats who say his global tariff war and approach to Russia's war on Ukraine are isolating the US from allies.

He's expected to announce deals with the three wealthy countries that will touch on artificial intelligence, expanding energy cooperation and perhaps new arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

The administration this month announced initial approval to sell USD 3.5 billion worth of air-to-air missiles for Saudi Arabia's fighter jets.

But Trump arrived in the Middle East when his top regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, are far from neatly aligned with his approach.

Trump's decision to skip Israel remarkable, expert says

Before the trip, Trump announced Washington was halting a nearly two-month US airstrike campaign against Yemen's Houthis, saying the Iran-backed rebels have pledged to stop attacking ships along a vital global trade route.

The administration didn't notify Israel — which the Houthis continue to target — of the agreement before Trump publicly announced it. It was the latest example of Trump leaving the Israelis in the dark about his administration's negotiations with common adversaries.

In March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn't notified by the administration until after talks began with Hamas about the war in Gaza. And Netanyahu found out about the ongoing US nuclear talks with Iran only when Trump announced them during an Oval Office visit by the Israeli leader last month.

“Israel will defend itself by itself,” Netanyahu said last week following Trump's Houthi truce announcement. “If others join us — our American friends — all the better."

William Wechsler, senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, said Trump's decision to skip Israel on his first Middle East visit is remarkable.

“The main message coming out of this, at least as the itinerary stands today, is that the governments of the Gulf ... are in fact stronger friends to President Trump than the current government of Israel at this moment,” Wechsler said.

Restarting efforts to normalise Israel-Saudi ties

Trump, meanwhile, hopes to restart his first-term effort to normalise relations between the Middle East's major powers, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Trump's Abraham Accords effort led to Sudan, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco agreeing to normalise relations with Israel.

But Riyadh has made clear that in exchange for normalisation it wants US security guarantees, assistance with the kingdom's nuclear programme and progress on a pathway to Palestinian statehood.

There seems to be scant hope for making headway on a Palestinian state with the Israel-Hamas war raging and the Israelis threatening to flatten and occupy Gaza.

Prince Mohammed last week notably hosted Palestinian Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh in Jeddah on the official's first foreign visit since assuming office in April.